Ål grew 5.6% in a year while Sel lost 2.7%
In a country where the typical municipality grew by just 0.5% last year, one Buskerud community added more than five times that pace. A few kilometres of map can separate the places that fill up from those that empty, and the official projections suggest the gap may widen.
Morning Analytics. The text is AI-assisted and checked: every figure is checked automatically against the database before publication. How it is calculated
Population growth, last year
The median municipality among the 183 compared grew by 0.5% in the past year, according to SSB, table 06913, for 2026. Ål, at 5.6%, is in a class of its own. Lørenskog follows at 3.0% and Hitra at 2.8%.
The other end is just as uneven. Sel lost 2.7% of its population, nearly twice the fall of Sunndal at −1.4%. Volda and Nord-Fron each shrank by 1.1%. Ål and Sel are both small municipalities, below the 5,000 threshold in some cases, so a few households moving can shift their percentages markedly.
Source: 06913, 2026. 183 compared.
Net migration per 1,000 inhabitants
Net migration, the balance of people moving in and out, shows much the same map. In 2025, SSB table 06913 puts the median at 4.0 per 1,000 inhabitants. Ål stands at 58.3, and Hitra at 29.6, with Lørenskog at 23.1.
Sel again sits at the bottom with −22.2 per 1,000, followed by Volda at −12.9 and Sunndal at −11.1. Sel, Volda and Sunndal appear in both the migration and the growth lists, which suggests that movement of people, rather than births and deaths, is a large part of the story. The figures do not show who moves or why.
Source: 06913, 2025. 183 compared.
Projected population growth to 2030 (main alternative)
Looking ahead, SSB table 14746 (2026) projects a median growth of 1.2% to 2030 in its main alternative. Lørenskog leads at 9.4%, with Frøya at 9.0% and Våler in Østfold at 8.7%.
Several names from the current growth lists return: Ål at 7.1%, Hitra at 7.0%, Ullensaker at 7.7%. At the bottom are Årdal at −4.8%, Sel and Nord-Fron at −4.5%. The projection extends recent trends and is no prediction of events.
Source: 14746, 2026. 183 compared.
Projected population growth to 2050 (main alternative)
Stretch the horizon to 2050 and the distance from the typical place grows. The median is 4.7%, according to the same SSB table. Nannestad tops the list at 36.3%, with Våler (Østfold) at 35.5% and Lørenskog at 34.1%.
The weakest outlook is Årdal at −15.4% and Meløy at −14.4%. Nord-Fron is at −11.3%. Over twenty-odd years, small initial differences compound, which is why the projections for the extremes are the most uncertain.
Source: 14746, 2026. 183 compared.
Employed, share of age 20–66
Work might be expected to explain the pattern, but the employment figures tell a less tidy story. In SSB table 11618, for 2025, the median share of 20–66-year-olds in work is 76.8%. Austevoll leads with 83.3%, then Tynset at 82.9% and Sunnfjord at 82.6%.
The lowest rates are in Eidskog at 66.5% and Søndre Land at 67.1%. Eidskog also appears among the top ten for net migration at 14.2, so high inflow and low employment can coexist. The figures do not say where its residents work, or whether they commute.
Source: 11618, 2025. 183 compared.
What the figures do not say
These figures describe registered population change and Statistics Norway's main-alternative projection, not what will happen. They cannot say why people move, and a projection is a calculation from current assumptions. Small municipalities, with few inhabitants, can swing sharply on a single large housing project or the closure of a single workplace, so their figures deserve extra caution. The employment figures are a snapshot for one year and do not show whether jobs follow people or the reverse.