Where Norway's oldest towns are also the ones expected to shrink
In Nord-Fron, 8.2% of residents are 80 or older; in Gjesdal, the figure is 2.8%. The places with the most very old residents are, for the most part, the same ones that statisticians expect to lose population by 2050.
Morning Analytics. The text is AI-assisted and checked: every figure is checked automatically against the database before publication. How it is calculated
Share aged 80 and over
The distance between Norway's oldest and youngest municipalities is wide. In Nord-Fron, 8.2% of residents are aged 80 or over, and Sel follows at 8.1%. In Gjesdal the share is 2.8%. The median across the 183 municipalities compared is 5.7% (SSB, tabell 07459, 2026).
The young end of the list is shaped by the largest urban regions. Oslo stands at 3.5%, Sandnes and Klepp at 3.6%, and commuter municipalities such as Ullensaker at 3.3% and Rælingen at 3.5% sit close by. For a local council, a share of very old residents on this scale can mean a quite different demand for care and services.
Source: 07459, 2026. 183 compared.
Projected population growth to 2050 (main alternative)
The projections point in nearly opposite directions for the two ends of that list. Nannestad, which has one of the lowest shares of people over 80 at 3.5%, is projected to grow 36.3% by 2050, and Ullensaker 31.7%. The median municipality is projected to grow 4.7% (SSB, tabell 14746, main alternative, 2026).
At the other end, Årdal is projected to shrink 15.4%, and Nord-Fron 11.3%. Both are among the very oldest municipalities today. Sel and Surnadal, each at −10.3%, and Trysil and Ullensvang, at −8.4% and −8.3%, follow the same pattern. A projection is a calculation from today's age structure and assumptions, so it cannot say whether these places will in fact change as projected.
Source: 14746, 2026. 183 compared.
Life expectancy at birth (15-year period)
Life expectancy tells a different story, because it does not follow the age map neatly. Volda leads at 84.4 years and Bærum follows at 84.3, against a median of 82.6 (FHI, table 508, 15-year period, 2025). Kvam, at 84.0, is also among the municipalities with the highest shares of people aged 80 and over.
The lowest figures are Søndre Land and Nordre Land, both at 80.3. Åsnes and Balsfjord, both at 81.0, also appear among the oldest populations. A place can thus have many people over 80 and still have a below-median life expectancy over the 15-year period. Why those two measures diverge in some places is a question the figures raise but cannot answer.
Source: fhi:508, 2025. 183 compared.
What the figures do not say
The figures describe shares and projections, not the reasons behind them. A projection rests on assumptions about births, deaths and moves, and a high share of people over 80 says nothing about how any of them live. Life expectancy over 15 years is an average for a place, not a forecast for a person.