The municipalities expected to grow and shrink the most by 2050
Statistics Norway's population projection to 2050, main alternative.
Nannestad has the highest projected population growth to 2050 of Norway's municipalities at 36.3% (2026). The lowest is Årdal at −15.4%. Source: SSB, table 14746, processed by Morning Analytics 5 November 2026.
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The picture in figures
The bars show the ten highest and the ten lowest of 183 municipalities. The dashed line is the median of all municipalities.
Each bar is the number of municipalities in a range of values. The dashed line is the median. Hover over a bar to see the range.
Analysis: why are some at the top and others at the bottom?
We compared projected population growth to 2050 with every other municipal figure we have, from Statistics Norway, NIPH and the Brønnøysund Register Centre. Below are the figures that go most closely together with projected population growth to 2050 across the country, and what marks the municipalities at the top and bottom on those figures.
The pattern across the country
- Municipalities that rank high on «Domestic in-migration per 1,000 inhabitants» most often also rank high on projected population growth to 2050 (strong association, rank correlation 0.81 across 183 municipalities; Statistics Norway table 09588).
- Municipalities that rank high on «Share aged 80 and over» most often rank low on projected population growth to 2050 (strong association, rank correlation −0.71 across 183 municipalities; Statistics Norway table 07459).
- Municipalities that rank high on «Centrality (Statistics Norway's centrality index, 6 is most central)» most often also rank high on projected population growth to 2050 (strong association, rank correlation 0.70 across 183 municipalities; Statistics Norway, centrality index).
- Municipalities that rank high on «Gross operating revenue per inhabitant» most often rank low on projected population growth to 2050 (strong association, rank correlation −0.69 across 183 municipalities; Statistics Norway table 12137).
The highest and the lowest
- No. 1 Nannestad (36.3%) Fits the pattern: «Share aged 80 and over» 3.5% (no. 353 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 07459); «Gross operating revenue per inhabitant» 100,829 kr (no. 350 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 12137); «Domestic in-migration per 1,000 inhabitants» 68.16 per 1,000 (no. 19 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 09588). Most distinctive industry: landtransport og rørtransport, 11% of the jobs, 4.6 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
- No. 2 Våler (Østfold) (35.5%) Fits the pattern: «Share aged 80 and over» 3.7% (no. 349 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 07459); «Domestic in-migration per 1,000 inhabitants» 73.52 per 1,000 (no. 10 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 09588); «Centrality (Statistics Norway's centrality index, 6 is most central)» 4 (no. 27 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway, centrality index). Most distinctive industry: anleggsvirksomhet, 6% of the jobs, 5.8 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
- No. 3 Lørenskog (34.1%) Fits the pattern: «Domestic in-migration per 1,000 inhabitants» 97.93 per 1,000 (no. 1 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 09588); «Centrality (Statistics Norway's centrality index, 6 is most central)» 6 (no. 1 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway, centrality index); «Gross operating revenue per inhabitant» 100,571 kr (no. 351 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 12137). Most distinctive industry: post og distribusjonsvirksomhet, 6% of the jobs, 10.4 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
- No. 183 Årdal (−15.4%, among the lowest) Fits the pattern: «Domestic in-migration per 1,000 inhabitants» 17.07 per 1,000 (no. 357 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 09588); «Share aged 80 and over» 8.0% (no. 56 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 07459). Most distinctive industry: produksjon av metaller, 35% of the jobs, 90.8 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
- No. 182 Meløy (−14.4%, among the lowest) Fits the pattern: «Domestic in-migration per 1,000 inhabitants» 30.80 per 1,000 (no. 319 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 09588). Most distinctive industry: produksjon av kjemikalier og kjemiske produkter, 8% of the jobs, 24.8 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
- No. 181 Nord-Fron (−11.3%, among the lowest) Fits the pattern: «Domestic in-migration per 1,000 inhabitants» 30.79 per 1,000 (no. 320 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 09588); «Share aged 80 and over» 8.2% (no. 46 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 07459). Most distinctive industry: produksjon av trelast og varer av tre, kork, strå og flettematerialer, unntatt møbler, 6% of the jobs, 14.4 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
The analysis describes what goes together, not what causes what. Two figures can follow each other because both depend on something else, such as size, location or industry. The figures are from the latest year available for each source, so the years can differ. Rank correlation runs from −1 to 1; values near 1 mean the municipalities lie in roughly the same order on both measures.
What explains the placing?
- 1. Nannestad 36.3% 666% above the median of the municipalities.
- 2. Våler (Østfold) 35.5% 649% above the median of the municipalities.
- 3. Lørenskog 34.1% 620% above the median of the municipalities.
- 181. Nord-Fron −11.3% 339% below the median of the municipalities.
- 182. Meløy −14.4% 403% below the median of the municipalities.
- 183. Årdal −15.4% 426% below the median of the municipalities.
| # | Municipality | projected population growth to 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| 151 | Midtre Gauldal | −3.5% |
| 152 | Vadsø | −3.6% |
| 153 | Alstahaug | −3.7% |
| 154 | Harstad | −3.9% |
| 155 | Gloppen | −4.0% |
| 156 | Gausdal | −4.0% |
| 157 | Heim | −4.2% |
| 158 | Namsos | −4.4% |
| 159 | Kragerø | −4.5% |
| 160 | Kinn | −4.6% |
| 161 | Nord-Aurdal | −4.8% |
| 162 | Indre Fosen | −5.2% |
| 163 | Ørsta | −5.7% |
| 164 | Tinn | −6.0% |
| 165 | Steinkjer | −6.1% |
| 166 | Fauske | −6.3% |
| 167 | Nordre Land | −7.1% |
| 168 | Kvinnherad | −7.5% |
| 169 | Brønnøy | −7.7% |
| 170 | Sykkylven | −8.0% |
| 171 | Vefsn | −8.1% |
| 172 | Sunndal | −8.1% |
| 173 | Kvam | −8.1% |
| 174 | Ullensvang | −8.3% |
| 175 | Herøy (Møre og Romsdal) | −8.4% |
| 176 | Trysil | −8.4% |
| 177 | Narvik | −8.7% |
| 178 | Rana | −9.9% |
| 179 | Surnadal | −10.3% |
| 180 | Sel | −10.3% |
| 181 | Nord-Fron | −11.3% |
| 182 | Meløy | −14.4% |
| 183 | Årdal | −15.4% |
Not ranked because the municipality has fewer than 5,000 inhabitants, where a few people can move the figure a lot (174): Alvdal (−6.0%), Andøy (−8.0%), Aremark (12.8%), Askvoll (−6.8%), Aukra (16.0%), Aure (−4.3%), Aurland (29.7%), Austrheim (12.7%), Bardu (9.4%), Beiarn (−5.0%), Berlevåg (5.3%), Bindal (−10.4%), Bjerkreim (5.1%), Bokn (9.2%), Bremanger (−14.1%), Bygland (10.1%), Bykle (39.0%), Båtsfjord (−2.9%), Bø (−1.3%), Dovre (−5.2%), Drangedal (−6.5%), Dyrøy (−4.6%), Dønna (−3.5%), Eidfjord (2.9%), Engerdal (21.1%), Etne (−6.0%), Etnedal (26.9%), Evenes (11.8%), Evje og Hornnes (7.1%), Fedje (18.5%), Fitjar (−1.3%), Fjaler (9.7%), Fjord (3.2%), Flakstad (12.6%), Flatanger (11.6%), Flesberg (18.5%), Flå (15.1%), Folldal (−4.0%), Frosta (12.1%), Fyresdal (−0.2%) …